🐯 Tiger Portfolio
$99K
-$636.31 (-0.64%)
Cash: $66K
Heat: 33.96%
SMH: -3.78%
Ξ±: +3.14%
Starting Capital
$100K
Current Value
$99K
Cash
$66K
Invested
$34K
Unrealized P&L
-$636.31
Realized P&L
+$0.00
SMH Return
-3.78%
$392.32
Alpha (Ξ±)
+3.14%
vs SMH
🌐 Macro Regime & Indicators
Market conditions and per-ticker technical status β€’ Updated Apr 3, 2026
Macro Regime
neutral
Monetary
tight (-0.50)
Sentiment
neutral (0.00)
VIX / 10Y Yield
23.87 / 4.313%
DXY Index
100.114
Ticker Regimes
ALAB mixed
ANET chop
COHR chop
CRDO trending
FN transition
GLW mixed
LITE goldilocks
NVT transition
PWR mixed
TSEM mixed
VRT mixed
πŸ“Š Current Positions
Ticker Type Qty Avg Cost Current Mkt Value P&L $ P&L % Weight Action
ANET stock 118 $135.96 $126.68 $14,948.24 -$1,094.75 -6.82% 44.30% TRADE
COHR stock 31 $246.98 $258.16 $8,002.96 +$346.43 4.52% 23.72% TRADE
PWR stock 7 $555.40 $560.63 $3,924.41 +$36.61 0.94% 11.63% TRADE
VRT stock 15 $244.93 $261.29 $3,919.35 +$245.40 6.68% 11.61% TRADE
NVT stock 25 $124.76 $117.96 $2,949.00 -$170.00 -5.45% 8.74% TRADE
πŸ’‘ Thesis Tracker
Ticker Company Category Status Key Thesis Updated
ALAB Astera Labs CORE ACTIVE
PCIe/CXL/Ethernet connectivity leader. 115% rev growth, 74% GM, Amazon 466M warrant. Post-earnings selloff (Feb 10) created accumulation zone. RSI 39, thick volume support at 125-150.
PCIe/CXL/Ethernet connectivity leader. 115% rev growth, 74% GM, Amazon 466M warrant. Post-earnings selloff (Feb 10) created accumulation zone. RSI 39, thick volume support at 125-150.
Feb 14, 2026
ANET Arista Networks GROWTH ACTIVE
B FY2025 revenue (+28.6%), guided $11.25B for 2026. AI networking leader β€” Ethernet transition beneficiary. EOS software moat + DSF (Disaggregated Scheduled Fabric) hardware moat. Jayshree Ullal elite CEO. MSFT 26% + Meta 16% = 42% concentration BUT dual-fabric architecture at Meta means Arista (DSF/7700R4) and NVIDIA Spectrum-X (NSF/whitebox) serve different layers β€” complementary, not competitive. NVIDIA is a growing Ethernet force (#1 briefly in Q2 2025, now #3) but competes in the whitebox/FBOSS layer, not Arista's scheduled fabric niche. Key risk: NVIDIA full-stack pull-through across other hyperscalers. Key strength: co-designed DSF with Meta since 2018, no NVIDIA equivalent to 7800R4 modular spine.
B FY2025 revenue (+28.6%), guided $11.25B for 2026. AI networking leader β€” Ethernet transition beneficiary. EOS software moat + DSF (Disaggregated Scheduled Fabric) hardware moat. Jayshree Ullal elite CEO. MSFT 26% + Meta 16% = 42% concentration BUT dual-fabric architecture at Meta means Arista (DSF/7700R4) and NVIDIA Spectrum-X (NSF/whitebox) serve different layers β€” complementary, not competitive. NVIDIA is a growing Ethernet force (#1 briefly in Q2 2025, now #3) but competes in the whitebox/FBOSS layer, not Arista's scheduled fabric niche. Key risk: NVIDIA full-stack pull-through across other hyperscalers. Key strength: co-designed DSF with Meta since 2018, no NVIDIA equivalent to 7800R4 modular spine.
Feb 17, 2026
COHR Coherent Corp WATCH WEAKENED
4x book-to-bill, InP vertical integration. Chart has thin structure above $121.
4x book-to-bill, InP vertical integration. Chart has thin structure above $121.
Feb 14, 2026
CRDO Credo Technology GROWTH ACTIVE
88% AEC market share, 173% FY26 rev growth. Sitting on 200d SMA at $122.
88% AEC market share, 173% FY26 rev growth. Sitting on 200d SMA at $122.
Feb 14, 2026
FN Fabrinet CORE ACTIVE
Sole manufacturer 1.6T optical transceivers for NVIDIA Blackwell. 100% market share. Asset-light model.
Sole manufacturer 1.6T optical transceivers for NVIDIA Blackwell. 100% market share. Asset-light model.
Feb 14, 2026
GLW Corning Incorporated CORE ACTIVE
Passive optical infrastructure giant with 171-year glass science moat playing AI buildout through optical fiber/cable demand for hyperscale data centers. Meta B multiyear deal anchors US capacity. Optical segment +24% YoY. Springboard plan targets 1B incremental revenue by 2028 (7.4B total). Poorna conviction pick. GLW occupies a differentiated layer vs COHR/FN/LITE β€” it makes the passive conduit (fiber, cable, connectivity) that all active optical signals travel through. AI data center buildout requires massive fiber deployment between racks, pods, and campuses. Passive infrastructure is less cyclical than active components, provides steady revenue anchor. Baker-adjacent: not in his explicit AI interconnect thesis but benefits directly from capex surge flowing into physical data center infrastructure.
Passive optical infrastructure giant with 171-year glass science moat playing AI buildout through optical fiber/cable demand for hyperscale data centers. Meta B multiyear deal anchors US capacity. Optical segment +24% YoY. Springboard plan targets 1B incremental revenue by 2028 (7.4B total). Poorna conviction pick. GLW occupies a differentiated layer vs COHR/FN/LITE β€” it makes the passive conduit (fiber, cable, connectivity) that all active optical signals travel through. AI data center buildout requires massive fiber deployment between racks, pods, and campuses. Passive infrastructure is less cyclical than active components, provides steady revenue anchor. Baker-adjacent: not in his explicit AI interconnect thesis but benefits directly from capex surge flowing into physical data center infrastructure.
Feb 18, 2026
LITE Lumentum Holdings GROWTH ACTIVE
Upstream EML laser manufacturer supplying the optical components inside every high-speed transceiver and co-packaged optic (CPO). 86% cloud revenue. Two new revenue categories not yet fully priced: (1) Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) β€” new intelligent optical switching category for AI scale-out networks, 00M+ backlog shipping H2 2026; (2) CPO β€” LITE supplies EML laser chips that go into CPO modules from COHR, FN, and others. Q3 FY2026 guidance 05M (~85% YoY growth). Baker-perfect alignment: optical interconnects are one of the two clearest AI infrastructure plays in his framework. Upstream positioning means LITE captures value across the entire optical supply chain regardless of which module/transceiver maker wins.
Upstream EML laser manufacturer supplying the optical components inside every high-speed transceiver and co-packaged optic (CPO). 86% cloud revenue. Two new revenue categories not yet fully priced: (1) Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) β€” new intelligent optical switching category for AI scale-out networks, 00M+ backlog shipping H2 2026; (2) CPO β€” LITE supplies EML laser chips that go into CPO modules from COHR, FN, and others. Q3 FY2026 guidance 05M (~85% YoY growth). Baker-perfect alignment: optical interconnects are one of the two clearest AI infrastructure plays in his framework. Upstream positioning means LITE captures value across the entire optical supply chain regardless of which module/transceiver maker wins.
Feb 18, 2026
NVT nVent Electric CORE ACTIVE
NVIDIA liquid cooling partner. 28x fwd P/E, $2.3B backlog (3x YoY), 30% rev growth. Testing $115-121 resistance.
NVIDIA liquid cooling partner. 28x fwd P/E, $2.3B backlog (3x YoY), 30% rev growth. Testing $115-121 resistance.
Feb 14, 2026
PWR Quanta Services WATCH WEAKENED
Largest electrical contractor, 68K workers, $39.2B backlog. Near ATH, 76x P/E.
Largest electrical contractor, 68K workers, $39.2B backlog. Near ATH, 76x P/E.
Feb 14, 2026
TSEM Tower Semiconductor GROWTH ACTIVE
Specialty foundry leader in silicon photonics, SiGe, analog/mixed-signal. NVIDIA SiPho partnership (Feb 5), $920M CapEx for 5x capacity. Revenue doubled SiPho to $228M. CEO Ellwanger 21yr tenure. Geopolitical diversification (Israel/US/Japan, not Taiwan).
Specialty foundry leader in silicon photonics, SiGe, analog/mixed-signal. NVIDIA SiPho partnership (Feb 5), $920M CapEx for 5x capacity. Revenue doubled SiPho to $228M. CEO Ellwanger 21yr tenure. Geopolitical diversification (Israel/US/Japan, not Taiwan).
Feb 16, 2026
VRT Vertiv Holdings CORE ACTIVE
Pure-play data center power and cooling infrastructure β€” 100% AI/DC revenue exposure vs NVT's ~30%. 5B backlog doubled YoY; 252% Q4 order growth. Liquid cooling and power management for AI clusters. While NVT is a diversified industrial with a DC segment, VRT is fully dedicated: UPS systems, PDUs, thermal management, and liquid cooling purpose-built for hyperscale AI data centers. Direct Baker alignment β€” he identifies liquid cooling as mandatory infrastructure (30kW β†’ 130kW per rack with Blackwell) and VRT's product suite is exactly the answer. Higher revenue growth rate (28%) than NVT at the company level because the full company is exposed to AI tailwinds, not just a segment. Organic orders +252% Q4 suggests capex visibility extends well into 2027.
Pure-play data center power and cooling infrastructure β€” 100% AI/DC revenue exposure vs NVT's ~30%. 5B backlog doubled YoY; 252% Q4 order growth. Liquid cooling and power management for AI clusters. While NVT is a diversified industrial with a DC segment, VRT is fully dedicated: UPS systems, PDUs, thermal management, and liquid cooling purpose-built for hyperscale AI data centers. Direct Baker alignment β€” he identifies liquid cooling as mandatory infrastructure (30kW β†’ 130kW per rack with Blackwell) and VRT's product suite is exactly the answer. Higher revenue growth rate (28%) than NVT at the company level because the full company is exposed to AI tailwinds, not just a segment. Organic orders +252% Q4 suggests capex visibility extends well into 2027.
Feb 18, 2026
πŸ“œ Trade History
Date Ticker Action Type Qty Proforma $ Locked $ Reasoning
Mar 24, 2026
11:08:30
NVT BUY stock 25 $124.62 $124.76
View reasoning
Gate 1: Active core thesis (nVent - AI thermal management). Gate 2: Stage 2 uptrend, +15% extension (acceptable), bullish MA alignment, healthy breakout volume. R/R ~2.3:1 to 132 target. Regime: chop (mean-reversion favored) - entry near support preferred. Gate 3: ,115 = 3.1% portfolio, cash after 5,623 (65%). Starter position per RULES.md.
Mar 13, 2026
11:05:02
ANET BUY stock 30 $131.89 $133.38
View reasoning
Gate1 active thesis. Gate2 conditional pass in chop regime: weekly Stage 2 intact, daily pullback into 6mo VP POC/VAL support (POC 130.07 / VAL 127.12), MA stack slightly damaged short-term with price just below SMA20/50 but 200d still rising; extension only 2.2% above 200d. R/R ~3.3:1 using 131.89 entry, 127.00 stop, 148.13 target. Gate3 fit: 30 shares = ~.96K starter (~4.0% of portfolio), post-trade position ~15.6%, within cash and concentration limits.
Mar 4, 2026
11:04:07
ANET BUY stock 30 $132.91 $133.42
View reasoning
Gate1 active thesis; Gate2 pass in chop regime near VP POC (130) with reclaim attempt and low extension (4.3% above 200d); R/R ~2.9:1 to VAH 149.8 with stop 127.1 (conditional, starter only). Gate3 fit: adds ~4.0% starter, stays <25% position and <50% daily cash deploy.
Feb 27, 2026
11:04:32
ANET BUY stock 23 $131.45 $131.03
View reasoning
Gate1 active thesis; Gate2 conditional pass in chop regime at VP support (POC~130, VAL~127) with ~3.3:1 R/R to ~149 target; Gate3 fit starter add (~3.0% of portfolio), within cash/risk limits.
Feb 23, 2026
11:39:25
VRT BUY stock 15 $243.23 $244.93
View reasoning
Passes Gate 2 & 3. In trending regime, price has pulled back to test SMA5 support. MAs aligned and rising. RSI 71.3 acceptable for trend pullback. Tight stop below SMA5 gives R/R > 3:1.
Feb 23, 2026
11:38:30
COHR BUY stock 15 $248.25 $248.27
View reasoning
Passes Gate 2 & 3. Price (48.25) > SMA20 > SMA50. Healthy RSI (66.3). Holding above VP VAH (38.07) offering solid 2:1 R/R for continuation. Goldilocks regime supports this.
Feb 20, 2026
11:03:47
COHR BUY stock 16 $250.87 $245.78
View reasoning
Trending regime breakout. Price > SMA5/20/50. RSI 67 ignored. Target 17, Stop 29.
Feb 20, 2026
11:03:47
PWR BUY stock 7 $555.60 $555.40
View reasoning
Trending regime breakout. Price > SMA5/20/50. RSI 73 ignored. Target 35, Stop 30.
Feb 17, 2026
14:11:59
ANET BUY stock 35 $143.09 $143.58
View reasoning
Starter position. Gate 1: Active thesis. Gate 2: Early Stage 2, full MA bullish stack, 14.4% ext (normal), RSI 55.9, within VP value area (POC 30 support). R/R 1.7:1 below 3:1 threshold but acceptable for starter in chop regime. Gate 3: 5% position, 5K cash remaining. #1 ranked name, all cash portfolio needs initial deployment.
πŸ“ˆ Tiger vs SMH β€” Performance
Returns since inception (Feb 14, 2026)
━━ Tiger Portfolio ━━ SMH
πŸ“ Trading Journal
Apr 3, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2PM Lock: No proformas. Portfolio -0.64% vs SMH -3.78% (+3.14% alpha). 5 positions (ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT, NVT), cash 66%. Regime scan: CRDO trending, LITE goldilocks, rest mixed/chop/transition. Maintaining selectivity, no forced entries.
Apr 2, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM Lock: No proformas. Portfolio -0.67% vs SMH -4.35% (+3.69% alpha). 5 positions held (ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT, NVT), 66% cash. Regime shifts: CRDO→trending, LITE→goldilocks, TSEM→mixed, ANET→chop, COHR→chop, PWR→mixed. Selectivity protecting capital.
Apr 2, 2026, 08:52 AM REVIEW
2026-04-02 EOD: Portfolio -1.12% vs SMH -3.86%, alpha +2.74%. No proformas today. Regime scan: TSEM only trending name (62.6% trend accuracy). LITE in chop (RSI reversion 100% accurate). ANET/FN in transition - low confidence. Cash 66% preserved. Selectivity continues to protect capital.
Apr 1, 2026, 03:01 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: No proformas. Portfolio -0.73% vs SMH -3.53%, alpha +2.80%. Cash 67%. 5 positions (ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT, NVT). Regime scoring pending.
Mar 31, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM trade lock β€” no proformas today. Portfolio -2.27% vs SMH -7.00%, alpha +4.74%. Cash 67.2%, 5 positions held. Regime scan: TSEM only trending name; ANET/FN transition; COHR/PWR/LITE chop. BEARISH macro (tight+risk-off) favors patience.
Mar 30, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2026-03-30 PM Lock: Portfolio -3.74% vs SMH -10.79%, alpha +7.05%. No proformas today. Market selloff continues but selectivity preserving capital. Cash position remains high (~67%). TSEM only ticker in trending regime. Monitoring ANET support, chop regimes (COHR/PWR/GLW/LITE) for RSI extremes.
Mar 27, 2026, 03:01 PM REVIEW
Market selloff continued (SMH -8.12%), portfolio held up well (-2.20%, alpha +5.92%). No proformas today - waiting for better entry setups. Cash remains high at ~67%. Regime rotation detected - LITE upgraded to goldilocks, ANET cooled to chop.
Mar 26, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM Lock: Portfolio -1.33% vs SMH -6.07% (+4.74% alpha). 5 positions held (ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT, NVT), 67% cash. Chop regime dominates (8/11 tickers) β€” mean-reversion environment, no proforma trades proposed. Selectivity preserving capital while benchmark weakens.
Mar 25, 2026, 03:01 PM REVIEW
2026-03-25 EOD: Portfolio +1.29% vs SMH -1.87%, alpha +3.16%. No proformas. All 5 positions green. Regime: 8/11 chop, 2 mixed (CRDO/VRT), 2 transition (ANET/TSEM). Mean-reversion environment favors patience.
Mar 24, 2026, 03:01 PM REVIEW
2 PM Lock: NVT starter position (25 shares @ $124.76) executed. Portfolio -2.66% vs SMH -3.41%, alpha +0.76%. Market volatile but portfolio resilient. NVT entry aligns with core thermal thesis - AI liquid cooling demand. Regime scoring pending.
Mar 20, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: No proformas. Portfolio -0.21% to $99,787. SMH -5.42%. Alpha +5.21%. 4 positions held (ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT). Cash 68.6%. Maintaining selectivity; no new entries until technicals align.
Mar 19, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM trade lock β€” no proformas. Portfolio $101K (+1.06%), SMH $391 (-4.07%), alpha +5.13%. 4 positions: ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT. Cash 68%. Regime scoring run for all watchlist tickers.
Mar 18, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: Portfolio +1.13% vs SMH -2.04%. Alpha +3.17%. No proformas pending. Positions: ANET $136.95, COHR $261.99, PWR $578.90, VRT $270.80. Maintaining high cash, selective deployment. Regime scoring pending.
Mar 17, 2026, 03:02 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: No proformas. Portfolio flat +0.25%, alpha +3.06% vs SMH. 4 positions (ANET, COHR, PWR, VRT), 68% cash. Regime scoring in progress.
Mar 16, 2026, 03:07 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: no pending proformas, no trades executed. Refreshed ANET/COHR/PWR/VRT prices and took snapshot at 00,356.77 (+0.36%) vs SMH 96.83 (-2.67%), alpha +3.03%. Regime refresh scored all 11 watchlist tickers with no day-over-day regime changes; trending cohort remains GLW/LITE/PWR/VRT and macro regime is neutral (tight monetary, neutral sentiment). Exit check clean: no position down 15%+ with weakening thesis and no position up 50%+ with RSI > 70.
Mar 13, 2026, 03:09 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: locked ANET buy 30 @ 133.38; portfolio value 99,890.31 (-0.11%), cash 68,738.73 (68.81%). Refreshed all positions, took snapshot, and rescored all 11 watchlist names across six regime indicators. No ticker regime changes vs yesterday; trend leadership remains GLW/LITE/PWR/VRT while macro regime stays neutral with tight monetary conditions. Exit rules clear: no position down 15%+ with weakening thesis and no position up 50%+ with RSI > 70.
Mar 12, 2026, 03:15 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: no pending proformas, no trades executed. Portfolio $100,340.11 (+0.34%) vs SMH -4.37%, alpha +4.71%. Regime refresh complete for 11 tickers with no day-over-day regime changes; trending cohort remains PWR/LITE/GLW/VRT. Exit-rule check clean; VRT RSI 67.97 below trim threshold.
Mar 11, 2026, 03:09 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: no pending proformas, so no trades executed. Refreshed ANET/COHR/PWR/VRT prices, took snapshot at $100,761.43 total value (+0.76% since inception) vs SMH $400.55 (-1.76%), alpha +2.52%. Regime refresh scored all 11 watchlist tickers and flagged ALAB mixed->chop, CRDO trending->mixed, and COHR mixed->chop. Exit check: no positions down 15%+ with weakening thesis and no positions up 50%+ with RSI > 70.
Mar 10, 2026, 03:04 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock: no pending proformas, no trades executed. Refreshed ANET/COHR/PWR/VRT prices, took snapshot at $101,650.25 total value (+1.65% since inception) vs SMH $403.15 (-1.12%), alpha +2.77%. Cash remains elevated at 72.90%; regime pass updated with no ticker regime changes. Exit check: no positions down 15%+ with weakening thesis and no positions up 50%+ with RSI > 70.
Mar 9, 2026, 03:01 PM REVIEW
2 PM lock executed with no pending proformas. Refreshed ANET/COHR/PWR/VRT, captured daily snapshot at 9,758.45 (-0.24%). Regime update flagged CRDO and LITE to trending, COHR to mixed; no exit-rule actions triggered.