| Ticker | Type | Qty | Avg Cost | Current | Mkt Value | P&L $ | P&L % | Weight | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANET | stock | 118 | $135.96 | $126.68 | $14,948.24 | -$1,094.75 | -6.82% | 44.30% | TRADE |
| COHR | stock | 31 | $246.98 | $258.16 | $8,002.96 | +$346.43 | 4.52% | 23.72% | TRADE |
| PWR | stock | 7 | $555.40 | $560.63 | $3,924.41 | +$36.61 | 0.94% | 11.63% | TRADE |
| VRT | stock | 15 | $244.93 | $261.29 | $3,919.35 | +$245.40 | 6.68% | 11.61% | TRADE |
| NVT | stock | 25 | $124.76 | $117.96 | $2,949.00 | -$170.00 | -5.45% | 8.74% | TRADE |
| Ticker | Company | Category | Status | Key Thesis | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALAB | CORE | ACTIVE |
PCIe/CXL/Ethernet connectivity leader. 115% rev growth, 74% GM, Amazon 466M warrant. Post-earnings selloff (Feb 10) created accumulation zone. RSI 39, thick volume support at 125-150.
|
Feb 14, 2026 | |
| ANET | GROWTH | ACTIVE |
B FY2025 revenue (+28.6%), guided $11.25B for 2026. AI networking leader β Ethernet transition beneficiary. EOS software moat + DSF (Disaggregated Scheduled Fabric) hardware moat. Jayshree Ullal elite CEO. MSFT 26% + Meta 16% = 42% concentration BUT dual-fabric architecture at Meta means Arista (DSF/7700R4) and NVIDIA Spectrum-X (NSF/whitebox) serve different layers β complementary, not competitive. NVIDIA is a growing Ethernet force (#1 briefly in Q2 2025, now #3) but competes in the whitebox/FBOSS layer, not Arista's scheduled fabric niche. Key risk: NVIDIA full-stack pull-through across other hyperscalers. Key strength: co-designed DSF with Meta since 2018, no NVIDIA equivalent to 7800R4 modular spine.
|
Feb 17, 2026 | |
| COHR | WATCH | WEAKENED |
4x book-to-bill, InP vertical integration. Chart has thin structure above $121.
|
Feb 14, 2026 | |
| CRDO | GROWTH | ACTIVE |
88% AEC market share, 173% FY26 rev growth. Sitting on 200d SMA at $122.
|
Feb 14, 2026 | |
| FN | CORE | ACTIVE |
Sole manufacturer 1.6T optical transceivers for NVIDIA Blackwell. 100% market share. Asset-light model.
|
Feb 14, 2026 | |
| GLW | CORE | ACTIVE |
Passive optical infrastructure giant with 171-year glass science moat playing AI buildout through optical fiber/cable demand for hyperscale data centers. Meta B multiyear deal anchors US capacity. Optical segment +24% YoY. Springboard plan targets 1B incremental revenue by 2028 (7.4B total). Poorna conviction pick. GLW occupies a differentiated layer vs COHR/FN/LITE β it makes the passive conduit (fiber, cable, connectivity) that all active optical signals travel through. AI data center buildout requires massive fiber deployment between racks, pods, and campuses. Passive infrastructure is less cyclical than active components, provides steady revenue anchor. Baker-adjacent: not in his explicit AI interconnect thesis but benefits directly from capex surge flowing into physical data center infrastructure.
|
Feb 18, 2026 | |
| LITE | GROWTH | ACTIVE |
Upstream EML laser manufacturer supplying the optical components inside every high-speed transceiver and co-packaged optic (CPO). 86% cloud revenue. Two new revenue categories not yet fully priced: (1) Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) β new intelligent optical switching category for AI scale-out networks, 00M+ backlog shipping H2 2026; (2) CPO β LITE supplies EML laser chips that go into CPO modules from COHR, FN, and others. Q3 FY2026 guidance 05M (~85% YoY growth). Baker-perfect alignment: optical interconnects are one of the two clearest AI infrastructure plays in his framework. Upstream positioning means LITE captures value across the entire optical supply chain regardless of which module/transceiver maker wins.
|
Feb 18, 2026 | |
| NVT | CORE | ACTIVE |
NVIDIA liquid cooling partner. 28x fwd P/E, $2.3B backlog (3x YoY), 30% rev growth. Testing $115-121 resistance.
|
Feb 14, 2026 | |
| PWR | WATCH | WEAKENED |
Largest electrical contractor, 68K workers, $39.2B backlog. Near ATH, 76x P/E.
|
Feb 14, 2026 | |
| TSEM | GROWTH | ACTIVE |
Specialty foundry leader in silicon photonics, SiGe, analog/mixed-signal. NVIDIA SiPho partnership (Feb 5), $920M CapEx for 5x capacity. Revenue doubled SiPho to $228M. CEO Ellwanger 21yr tenure. Geopolitical diversification (Israel/US/Japan, not Taiwan).
|
Feb 16, 2026 | |
| VRT | CORE | ACTIVE |
Pure-play data center power and cooling infrastructure β 100% AI/DC revenue exposure vs NVT's ~30%. 5B backlog doubled YoY; 252% Q4 order growth. Liquid cooling and power management for AI clusters. While NVT is a diversified industrial with a DC segment, VRT is fully dedicated: UPS systems, PDUs, thermal management, and liquid cooling purpose-built for hyperscale AI data centers. Direct Baker alignment β he identifies liquid cooling as mandatory infrastructure (30kW β 130kW per rack with Blackwell) and VRT's product suite is exactly the answer. Higher revenue growth rate (28%) than NVT at the company level because the full company is exposed to AI tailwinds, not just a segment. Organic orders +252% Q4 suggests capex visibility extends well into 2027.
|
Feb 18, 2026 |
| Date | Ticker | Action | Type | Qty | Proforma $ | Locked $ | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 11:08:30 |
NVT | BUY | stock | 25 | $124.62 | $124.76 |
View reasoningGate 1: Active core thesis (nVent - AI thermal management). Gate 2: Stage 2 uptrend, +15% extension (acceptable), bullish MA alignment, healthy breakout volume. R/R ~2.3:1 to 132 target. Regime: chop (mean-reversion favored) - entry near support preferred. Gate 3: ,115 = 3.1% portfolio, cash after 5,623 (65%). Starter position per RULES.md. |
| Mar 13, 2026 11:05:02 |
ANET | BUY | stock | 30 | $131.89 | $133.38 |
View reasoningGate1 active thesis. Gate2 conditional pass in chop regime: weekly Stage 2 intact, daily pullback into 6mo VP POC/VAL support (POC 130.07 / VAL 127.12), MA stack slightly damaged short-term with price just below SMA20/50 but 200d still rising; extension only 2.2% above 200d. R/R ~3.3:1 using 131.89 entry, 127.00 stop, 148.13 target. Gate3 fit: 30 shares = ~.96K starter (~4.0% of portfolio), post-trade position ~15.6%, within cash and concentration limits. |
| Mar 4, 2026 11:04:07 |
ANET | BUY | stock | 30 | $132.91 | $133.42 |
View reasoningGate1 active thesis; Gate2 pass in chop regime near VP POC (130) with reclaim attempt and low extension (4.3% above 200d); R/R ~2.9:1 to VAH 149.8 with stop 127.1 (conditional, starter only). Gate3 fit: adds ~4.0% starter, stays <25% position and <50% daily cash deploy. |
| Feb 27, 2026 11:04:32 |
ANET | BUY | stock | 23 | $131.45 | $131.03 |
View reasoningGate1 active thesis; Gate2 conditional pass in chop regime at VP support (POC~130, VAL~127) with ~3.3:1 R/R to ~149 target; Gate3 fit starter add (~3.0% of portfolio), within cash/risk limits. |
| Feb 23, 2026 11:39:25 |
VRT | BUY | stock | 15 | $243.23 | $244.93 |
View reasoningPasses Gate 2 & 3. In trending regime, price has pulled back to test SMA5 support. MAs aligned and rising. RSI 71.3 acceptable for trend pullback. Tight stop below SMA5 gives R/R > 3:1. |
| Feb 23, 2026 11:38:30 |
COHR | BUY | stock | 15 | $248.25 | $248.27 |
View reasoningPasses Gate 2 & 3. Price (48.25) > SMA20 > SMA50. Healthy RSI (66.3). Holding above VP VAH (38.07) offering solid 2:1 R/R for continuation. Goldilocks regime supports this. |
| Feb 20, 2026 11:03:47 |
COHR | BUY | stock | 16 | $250.87 | $245.78 |
View reasoningTrending regime breakout. Price > SMA5/20/50. RSI 67 ignored. Target 17, Stop 29. |
| Feb 20, 2026 11:03:47 |
PWR | BUY | stock | 7 | $555.60 | $555.40 |
View reasoningTrending regime breakout. Price > SMA5/20/50. RSI 73 ignored. Target 35, Stop 30. |
| Feb 17, 2026 14:11:59 |
ANET | BUY | stock | 35 | $143.09 | $143.58 |
View reasoningStarter position. Gate 1: Active thesis. Gate 2: Early Stage 2, full MA bullish stack, 14.4% ext (normal), RSI 55.9, within VP value area (POC 30 support). R/R 1.7:1 below 3:1 threshold but acceptable for starter in chop regime. Gate 3: 5% position, 5K cash remaining. #1 ranked name, all cash portfolio needs initial deployment. |